Application of the Layered Causal Method to Explain the Social Unrest of 1401

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Department of Internal Security, Faculty of National Security, National Defense University

2 Assistant Professor, National Security Research Institute, National Defense University

Abstract

The extensive and diverse volume of media coverage, announcements of domestic and international political positions and feedback following the death of Ms. Mahsa Amini on September 15, 1401, led to social unrest across the country, which had new characteristics in terms of dimensions, discourse and methods of protest. This is because; the high speed, diversity in topics, inclusion of different strata, network cohesion and the transformation of protest into riots indicated that the social unrest of 1401 was based on the intensification of social gaps and changes in public perception in the field of beliefs, values and lifestyles and was aimed at weakening social capital. Given the importance of this phenomenon, the main issue of the research was to explain the causal layers and roots of the social unrest of 1401, and the main question is posed as follows: “How are the causes of the social unrest of 1401 explained?” To answer this question and explain the various causes, background conditions, and contexts of emergence and expansion, “Layered Causal Analysis” (CLA) has been used, as the main advantage of this method is that it forces the researcher to move from “focusing on one narrative” to “different narratives,” and therefore provides deep and reliable knowledge. In this study, in order to discover the nature and comprehensive narrative for the social unrest of 1401, a model in four layers: litany or apparent (description of the unrest including dimensions, components, and characteristics), systemic (including contextual, managerial, and intervening factors), discursive, and mythical, has been presented through in-depth interviews with elites and experts related to the subject.