Document Type : Original Article
Authors
1
Ph.D. Candidate in Communication Sciences, Ard, C., Islamic Azad University, Ardabil, Iran.
2
Assistant Professor, Department of Communication, Faculty of Communication and Media, IRIB University, Tehran, Iran.
3
Department of Communication, siences, Ard, C, Islamic Azad University., Ardabil, IRAN
4
Associate Professor, Department of Criminology, National Police University .
Abstract
This study aims to design a futures studies model for news within Iranian social media ecosystems by the horizon of 1436 (2057).The research employs a mixed-methods design (qualitative and fuzzy-quantitative). Initially, components were extracted through thematic analysis and interviews with 21 experts. Subsequently, the Fuzzy Delphi method was conducted over three rounds with the participation of 25 specialists to prioritize and validate indicators. Finally, scenarios were drawn using Scenario Wizard software and the MICMAC matrix. Findings indicate that the news ecosystem is influenced by five key drivers. Artificial Intelligence and Big Data have transformed the nature of news from a "static commodity" to a "fluid process." Furthermore, the shift of audiences from passive consumers to active producers and the collapse of traditional revenue models are identified as fundamental challenges. Two main scenarios were identified: the "Crisis of Truth" (likely), where fake and emotional news lead to polarization and reduced trust; and "Transparent Intelligence" (desirable), where technology serves verification and transparency, while subscription-based models ensure independence. The conclusion suggests that the future of news is not deterministic but depends on strategic choices. To transition from the likely to the desirable scenario, interventions in four areas are necessaryBy integrating Fuzzy Delphi and Scenario Writing within the Iranian context, this study provides a systematic framework for policymakers to confront technological and societal changes with a strategic, forward-looking perspective, thereby fostering a transparent and sustainable ecosystem.